Admittedly, hundreds of candidates across the country fail to earn their party's nomination for the upcoming election, but Eve Adams' case is a different one. In case you're not familiar of her situation-cum-predicament, here's a brief recap.
Eve Adams has been a Conservative since the age of 14. She won 3 municipal election in Missisauga (as a councillor) on her Conservative values. She then ran for office on the federal scene in 2011 and defeated long time incumbent Navdeep Bains. Incidentally, Bains had strong support from the Punjab community in the region, but the Liberal fell prey to his party's historic collapse under Michael Ignatieff, and Stephen Harper's key success in the GTA area to secure a majority government. But even with some help thanks to the Tory momentum in Ontario, Adams had nonetheless done what has always been tricky to do in politics - defeating a well-respected incumbent.
Despite this, Adams became tangled up in a heated nomination race in Oakville North-Burlington, a new riding in which she now resided. Although most of the juicy stuff - wrongdoings, illegal campaign activities, all that good stuff - remain behind closed doors within the Conservative Party, the Tories saw fit to ban her from running not just in that riding, but anywhere for the Conservatives. The party's upper ranks' falling out with her fiance, Dimitri Soudas, probably didn't help her cause either.
Flustered, frustrated and determined to keep herself in the House of Commons, Eve Adams crossed the floor to the Liberal Party - an announcement made on a nationally televised press conference by Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau. The instant reaction of the journalists in the room was very telling - a collective gasp, a few groans and one or two chuckles. The long-time Conservative, who was certainly not on the Progressive side of the Conservative Party, and who is no stranger to controversy (shopping in NYC on Remembrance Day when you're the secretary of Veterans Affairs? maybe not the best idea...), was suddenly taking a massive ideological shift and running for the Liberals?
It was an eyebrow raising decision by Trudeau, and one that could massively backfire (see: C-51). Sure enough, it seemingly has today. After pursuing the Liberal nomination in the riding of Eglinton-Lawrence (finance minister Joe Oliver's riding, but otherwise long-time Liberal seat), Adams has lost her nomination race. The person instead earning the Liberal nomination in the GTA riding is lawyer Marco Mendicino, a familiar face in the riding who has worked himself up the party hierarchy so to speak in the area which he is now running to represent.
This comes as a blow for Justin Trudeau, but more so within the party than outside the party. I wonder if this decision in itself will have any palpable impact on the average Canadian voter. Perhaps it reinforces the narrative that he lacks the character of a leader, that he hasn't acquired that metaphorical gene required to be a thoughtful, strong frontman of a party, or even of a country? I suppose it does help drive home that attack against him.
Regardless, I think that Trudeau's public endorsement of Eve Adams as a potential candidate, followed by Adams' rejection by the Liberal party members in the riding which Trudeau had hand picked for Adams, is more damaging within the party than outside the party. Which speaks to a more pressing problem - in politics, I believe it's crucial to speak to your base, to keep those votes. When things aren't going right for your party, it's still important to have that yoke of support within your party. In my opinion, Justin Trudeau has fundamentally failed at this.
First, he kicked out senators from his Liberal caucus. I might write about my thoughts on how the parties are playing the Senate crisis later, a very delicate situation that still has a sizeable amount votes riding on it. But back to this point. Kicking out long-established senators from his caucus meetings and the "inner baseball" of the party alienates many and divides the Liberal base. He believed that this decision would come at a bigger political gain outside the party base, but such a gain must never be made at the expense of the base. You can stray from the long time party position for some on-the-fence votes, but you can't do so at the expense of your most reliable voters, or of the upper workings of the part itself.
Second, he made the decision to vote in favour of C-51, the, depending on who you believe, responsible, well thought out anti terrorism bill, or the irresponsible, unnecessary, turn-the-RCMP-into-a-police-state bill. In any case, this was Trudeau's second mistake. It was a calculated risk that he took - the inner polling said that it would be best to suck it up and vote in favour - but another fundamental mistake. In this seemingly long election campaign ahead, Thomas Mulcair looks like the freedom-fighter, while Justin Trudeau gives off an air of "we'll do what we have to do to win." Not only this, but he once again upsets his base which weren't completely satisified with the bill. It would have been wiser to abstain than vote in favour after having their amendments rejected.
Eve Adams is Trudeau's third mistake. And perhaps the most damaging to his base of voters. In endorsing a hypocritical right-wing candidate who hasn't quite been able to sell the "I-hate-Harper-and-Conservative-policy narrative (though I do believe that many Tories dislike Harper), Trudeau ran a massive risk. Letting a right-wing candidate run for his party, and further associating himself with the right after the C-51 shambles. The first risk in the previous sentence seems to have been averted, but it comes at the cost of a mini-rebellion in the GTA region, and let's face it - the Liberal base was happy such a rebellion happened. This, once again, speaks to Trudeau's supposed inability to please his base.
Simply put, Trudeau's not playing the stray-from-your-base for other votes on the left or the right very well. His calculated risks are failing. He's upset some of his base in taking those risks.
This does not bode well with over 11 weeks left until the federal election.
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